Rant 2 starts now: 3, 2, …
Secretary of state John Kerry proposed an illegal Plan B option in case the Russian-brokered cease fire in Syria fails. He proposed PARTITION of Syria. NO ONE ON ANY SIDE took him seriously. No one wants Syria partitioned except some very deep wonks at US State who foresee an independent Kurdistan. Kurdistan is the Rodney Dangerfield of nation-states, it never got any respect.
Left out of previous carvings-up of the Middle East, Kurds took matters into their own hands decades ago and have been fighting for independence in Syria, Iraq and Turkey off and on the entire time. ISIS is jsut as much Turkey’s proxy terrorist army against its mortal enemies the Kurds as it is the US’s proxy terrorist force against Syria’s Assad. By broaching his “Plan B” Kerry is actually handing Turkey an ultimatum: either play nicely, or we’ll carve out pieces of Eastern Turkey for an independent Kurdistan too, along with bits of Syria and Iraq.
He’s also pretending for the benefit of his Russian audience to wield much more power to draw boundaries than the US actually has. As Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the Emirates, Bahrain and Oman issue advisories to their citizens to GTFO of Lebanon and Turkey and Saudi float various trial ballons involving nuclear weapons pointed at Russia, taking over US airbases and the like, something is definitely UP, as they say. The level of rhetoric and rumor is high enough to expect SOMETHING of a martial nature to happen involving Saudi, Turkey and Syria.
The “wildcard” in the pack is an unlikely one: Israel. Just when you thought it was safe to consider Israel fully in the fold and supporting the US’s ISIS with a wink and a nod, Israel actually has no interest in supporting Turkish and Saudi adventures and territorial expansions on its borders. It also has no stake left in supporting an ever flimsier pretense by the US to be fighting terrorism in Syria and Iraq.
The other side of the equation, the “opposition” to Turkey and the House that Saud built on instructions from the English monarch, is Russia, Iran, Syria, Lebanon and perhaps Iraq. If Armenia and Azerbaijan can be counted upon to support Russian troop and air transit, Ukraine then falls onto the Turkish/Saudi axis, but Israel could either not participate at all, garrison the Golan, or go either way, to either side.
If Israel decided to support Assad over out-of-control US-sponsored Muslim nut armies in Syria, and if Israel made a separate peace with Assad and Russia to ensure long-term tenure over the Golan, it might make more sense for Israel to join the fighting on the side of Assad, to prosecute a counter-insurgency campaign WITH Russia, Iran and Syria in Syria and Iraq.
It would be an interesting prospect and might foster some long-term good will in quarters Israel doesn’t usually court. If Israel goes with the idea Turkey and Saudi are somehow moderate and Israel-friendly states, it migth find itself in the middle of a nuclear conficlt with Russia and Saudi Arabia, where victory by either side will be Israel’s loss. If the Saudi-Turk axis wins,
Turkey can be expected to keep invading till it rebuilds its empire and Saudi will have its pipeline headed north, but what’s in it for Israel? Final recognition of the Golan Heights belonging to Israel? Unlikely.
End of rant 2.